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Luceco - Net debt / EBITDA just 0.8x vs forecasts of 1.3x

March 2023

Investing in shares may lose you all or some of your money. Past performance is no indication of future performance. Some of the shares recommended here may be small company shares, which can be relatively illiquid and hard to trade and this makes such shares more risky than other investments.

My comments last December that Luceco was probably at the bottom of the downgrade cycle were nicely timed with the shares rallying over 50% after it said full year EBIT would now be towards the upper end of the guidance range (£20m-£22m). While Q4 was affected by customer de-stocking, this was offset by cost deflation benefits and pricing initiatives, which meant gross margin recovery in H2 was stronger than expected at 37.5%, vs 34% in H1. This more than compensated for Q4 revenues of -22% year-on-year versus -11% in Q3, with full year revenue falling around 10% to £206m. More impressive still, record free cash flow generation, of £30m on Liberum’s estimates, resulted in much lower year end net debt than expected at £24m ...

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Diversified Energy

Luceco (May 2024)

Luceco - First acquisition for two years (April 2024)

Luceco - Trading ahead of expectations (March 2024)

Luceco - Leverage falls below 1x (January 2024)

Luceco (November 2023)

Luceco - Margin growth drives 8% profit upgrade (September 2023)

Luceco - CEO John Hornby upbeat on margin recovery potential (June 2023)

Luceco - Net debt to be virtually eliminated by FY24 (May 2023)

Luceco (December 2022)

Luceco (June 2022)

Luceco - Acquires DW Windsor (December 2021)

Luceco - Gain to date: 209% (May 2021)

Luceco (March 2021)

Luceco - Another towering upgrade (December 2020)

Luceco - Shares hit new high of 221p (November 2020)

Luceco - 23% eps forecast upgrade (September 2020)

Luceco - Huge upgrade (August 2020)

Luceco (May 2020)

Luceco (March 2020)

Luceco - Soon to be prospective PE just 11.2 in spite of excellent growth record (November 2019)

Luceco - Cheap on prospective PE of 10.8 (October 2019)

Luceco - Forecasts upgraded; new price target 80p (March 2019)

Luceco (July 2018)

Luceco (April 2018)

Luceco (February 2018)

Luceco - Gain to date: 65% (November 2017)

Luceco (September 2017)

Luceco - Eps beats forecast (May 2017)

Luceco - Emerging LED lighting products business eyes eps growth of 15-20% p.a. (December 2016)

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Luceco - Net debt / EBITDA just 0.8x vs forecasts of 1.3x

March 2023

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